Biggest Betting Upsets

Place kicker A. Vinatieri celbrating in Super Bowl XXXVI

Once upon a time, there was a mighty football team called the St. Louis Rams. They were the Greatest Show on Turf. Nobody could beat them – surely not the New England Patriots, those occasionally loveable losers.

Whoops. The Pats, as you may recall, beat the Rams 20-17 at Super Bowl XXXVI (that’s the one that wrapped up the 2001 season), cashing in as 14-point underdogs. That victory was surprising at the time on so many levels. The Super Bowl had become an annual showcase for the best team in football to slaughter its hapless opponent. Think of all those lopsided victories by the 49ers and the Cowboys over far lesser teams; now recall how great those Rams were. They won the Super Bowl two years earlier when quarterback Kurt Warner put up some ridiculous videogame numbers, so when Warner put up even bigger numbers in 2001, the betting die was cast.

Retrospect tells us the Pats were actually a pretty good team themselves, and that this was no fluke – even if it took the infamous “Tuck Rule” for New England to advance past the Oakland Raiders to get to the big game in the first place. But before the game, CNNSI’s Trev Alberts said the following: “I think if the St. Louis Rams don’t win Super Bowl XXXVI, it’s the biggest upset in the history of the National Football League. I truly believe that.”

Well, neither CNNSI nor Alberts are there to kick around anymore, but Alberts clearly dropped the ball on this one. Perhaps he had never heard of a certain “Broadway Joe” Namath and his upstart New York Jets. In Super Bowl III, the mighty Baltimore Colts were 18-point favorites against Namath and those rascally AFL rejects. But this wasn’t just a case of bettors snoozing on the quality of the AFL – this was Baltimore. This was Johnny Unitas and Willie Richardson and Bubba Smith. With that firepower, the Colts steamed to –20 favorites before kickoff.

And then the man in the pantyhose threw 17-of-28 for 206 yards, and Matt Snell ran for 121 more. But the big difference was Unitas. He had been on the bench for most of the season with a sore elbow, only playing in parts of five games for the Colts. Starting QB Earl Morrall made the Pro Bowl that year and was named league MVP; however, at the Super Bowl, he tossed three picks on the way to a lousy 6-for-17 performance. Unitas came on late to throw for Baltimore’s only score in a 16-7 loss.

This upset was almost a mirror image of the Rams-Pats game. In that instance, Tom Brady was taking over the reins from the injured Drew Bledsoe, but Brady came through and would go on to be considered one of the greatest QBs in NFL history (even just a few seasons into his career). Morrall went on to earn three Super Bowl rings in a row as a backup (one with the Colts and two behind Bob Griese and the Miami Dolphins), but otherwise is a forgotten man in NFL history.

These two Super Bowl wins were big upsets for fans and bettors alike. Yet there’s one other game that holds a special place in handicappers’ hearts. It’s so famous, Saturday Night Live did a fake vignette about it called “Super Bowl Gambling Memories” back in 1987, when Joe Montana and Walter Payton were hosts. Let’s go to the footage …

Narrator: “Super Bowl X. Miami. With the Pittsburgh Steelers leading the Dallas Cowboys, 21-10, Dallas quarterback Roger Staubach fires a 34-yard touchdown pass to Percy Howard in the waning moments of the fourth quarter, making the final score: Pittsburgh 21, Dallas 17. The Cowboys, 6-point underdogs, have beaten the spread.”

Now that is a betting upset worth cherishing.